Biden Has 71.1% Chance of Winning Election: FiveThirtyEight

Joe Biden stands a 71.1% chance of winning the Electoral College, according to the Sept. 7 run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model. He is predicted to win 334 of 538 electoral votes.

  • The model estimated Donald Trump’s chances at 28.4%
  • According to the Sept. 7 run of the model, Trump had a 15.9% chance of carrying the popular vote, compared with Biden’s 84.1%
  • The national polling average for Trump reached 42.9% on Sept. 7, the same as on Sept. 6
  • Biden’s national polling average reached 50.6% on Sept. 7 compared with 50.5% on Sept. 6
  • These were the FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts and polling averages by state on Sept. 7:
    State Electoral Votes 2016 Winner Trump Poll Avg Biden Poll Avg Trump Win Chance Biden Win Chance
    Alabama 9 Trump 57.4% 38.4% 98.0% 2.0%
    Alaska 3 Trump 49.6% 45.0% 80.7% 19.3%
    Arizona 11 Trump 43.7% 48.9% 39.4% 60.6%
    Arkansas 6 Trump 47.0% 45.0% 93.8% 6.2%
    California 55 Clinton 30.9% 61.3% 0.2% 99.8%
    Colorado 9 Clinton 40.1% 52.3% 13.6% 86.5%
    Connecticut 7 Clinton 34.4% 53.8% 1.8% 98.2%
    Delaware 3 Clinton 38.4% 57.3% 0.3% 99.7%
    District of Columbia 3 Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
    Florida 29 Trump 45.5% 48.6% 42.1% 57.9%
    Georgia 16 Trump 46.6% 45.6% 68.1% 31.9%
    Hawaii 4 Clinton 30.3% 56.7% 1.2% 98.8%
    Idaho 4 Trump 0.0% 0.0% 99.4% 0.6%
    Illinois 20 Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 99.5%
    Indiana 11 Trump 53.0% 38.4% 95.4% 4.6%
    Iowa 6 Trump 46.2% 45.1% 68.5% 31.5%
    Kansas 6 Trump 50.7% 41.0% 92.8% 7.2%
    Kentucky 8 Trump 55.1% 39.7% 97.7% 2.3%
    Louisiana 8 Trump 53.2% 39.3% 92.5% 7.4%
    Maine 4 Clinton 40.1% 50.7% 21.9% 78.1%
    Maryland 10 Clinton 35.1% 59.6% 0.2% 99.8%
    Massachusetts 11 Clinton 29.5% 63.6% 0.2% 99.8%
    Michigan 16 Trump 42.4% 49.6% 17.2% 82.8%
    Minnesota 10 Clinton 44.0% 50.7% 23.0% 77.0%
    Mississippi 6 Trump 53.6% 40.8% 87.8% 12.2%
    Missouri 10 Trump 49.6% 43.5% 90.2% 9.8%
    Montana 3 Trump 51.4% 43.2% 88.5% 11.5%
    Nebraska 5 Trump 0.0% 0.0% 98.5% 1.5%
    Nevada 6 Clinton 41.1% 46.3% 21.1% 78.9%
    New Hampshire 4 Clinton 43.2% 50.7% 27.9% 72.1%
    New Jersey 14 Clinton 35.6% 54.1% 3.6% 96.4%
    New Mexico 5 Clinton 41.3% 53.8% 7.2% 92.8%
    New York 29 Clinton 33.2% 59.7% 0.2% 99.8%
    North Carolina 15 Trump 46.6% 48.7% 47.4% 52.6%
    North Dakota 3 Trump 55.9% 38.0% 98.9% 1.1%
    Ohio 18 Trump 47.2% 46.0% 60.5% 39.5%
    Oklahoma 7 Trump 58.4% 34.6% 99.3% 0.7%
    Oregon 7 Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 91.8%
    Pennsylvania 20 Trump 44.9% 49.7% 30.3% 69.7%
    Rhode Island 4 Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 98.6%
    South Carolina 9 Trump 49.6% 43.5% 87.7% 12.3%
    South Dakota 3 Trump 0.0% 0.0% 96.7% 3.3%
    Tennessee 11 Trump 53.5% 40.1% 95.7% 4.3%
    Texas 38 Trump 47.1% 46.6% 71.3% 28.7%
    Utah 6 Trump 48.9% 36.2% 95.4% 4.6%
    Vermont 3 Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 99.2%
    Virginia 13 Clinton 40.4% 51.1% 6.0% 94.0%
    Washington 12 Clinton 33.3% 58.8% 1.1% 98.9%
    West Virginia 5 Trump 64.6% 32.4% 99.3% 0.7%
    Wisconsin 10 Trump 43.1% 50.3% 25.1% 74.9%
    Wyoming 3 Trump 0.0% 0.0% 99.8% 0.2%

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