July jobs report expected to show hiring dwindled as labor market cools off
Strong jobs report reflection of where economy was pre-pandemic: Eugene Scalia
Former Trump labor secretary analyzes the June jobs report and the state of the economy on “Cavuto: Coast to Coast.”
U.S. job growth likely cooled off in July, suggesting that headwinds from the highest inflation in four decades and rising interest rates are starting to weigh on the labor market.
The Labor Department on Friday morning is releasing its closely watched July jobs report, which is projected to show that payrolls increased by 250,000 last month and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%, according to a median estimate by Refinitiv economists.
That would mark the worst month for job creation since December 2020, when the economy shed 115,000 positions.
Wall Street and Washington are eagerly awaiting the latest employment data amid signs of an impending economic slowdown.
IS THE UNITED STATES ENTERING A RECESSION?
A separate government report last week showed that GDP, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, shrank by 0.9% on an annualized basis in the three-month period from April through June. Economic output already fell over the year's first three months, with GDP tumbling 1.6%.
With back-to-back declines in growth, the economy meets the technical criteria for a recession, which requires a "significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months." (The National Bureau of Economic Research — the semi-official arbiter — typically waits up to a year to confirm recessions).
The labor market has remained one of the few bright spots in the economy for months, but there are signs that it is starting to weaken: Jobless claims are steadily edging higher and a plethora of companies, including Alphabet's Google, Walmart, Apple, Meta, Robinhood and Microsoft, have announced hiring freezes or layoffs in recent weeks.
Friday's report could shed light on the health of the jobs market as consumers confront record-high inflation and increasingly steep borrowing costs.
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